With the Monterey Bay League becoming a 29-team, four division league for football in 2018, here is what it COULD look like.
Division I
1. San Benito
1. San Benito
2. Salinas:
3. Palma:
4. Aptos:
5. Alvarez:
6. Monte Vista:
7. Christopher:
8. Gilroy:
Division II
1. Seaside:
2. Scotts Valley:
3. Soledad:
4. Carmel:
5. North Salinas:
6. Monterey:
7. Watsonville:
Division III
1. Alisal:
2. King City:
3. San Lorenzo Valley:
4. St. Francis, Watsonville:
5. Pacific Grove:
6. Stevenson:
7. North County:
Division IV
1. Soquel:
2. Gonzales:
3. Greenfield:
4. Santa Cruz:
5. Marina:
6. Pajaro Valley:
7. Harbor:
*Note: Rancho San Juan High in Salinas will have varsity football in 2019.
2 comments:
While it will change weekly until the season is over, here is the way the leagues will lay out if they use the calpreps/maxpreps computer model to determine "equity". (My recommendation has been to use a computer model and then "modify" the results based on (1) the number of returning seniors and (2) the JV record. So for example, if the computer model pushed a team like Carmel into the Gabilan Division, Carmel could say (1) they only have 6 returning seniors and/or (2) their JV had a record of 3 and 7 with the implication being they are highly unlikely to be competitive in the Gabilan if pushed up. However if they cannot make the returning seniors or JV record argument then they get pushed up.)
Gabilan (Assuming it is decided that the Gabilan Division will be the 8 team league.)
Salinas
Aptos
Hollister
Christopher
Palma
Seaside
Gilroy
Scotts Valley
Mission
Soledad
MVC
Alvarez
Carmel
St Francis
Watsonville
King City
Cypress
North Salinas
SLV
Alisal
RLS
Greenfield
Soquel
Santa Cruz
Santa Lucia
PG
NMC
Monterey
Gonzales
Pajaro Valley
Marina
Harbor
How much difference is there between the subjective ranking of JD and the computer model?
Quite a bit...much of it simply the difference between two divisions. For example JD has Alvarez and MVC in D I next year while the maxpreps model says they should be in D 2.
But there is one in particular where fondness for a team causes the subjective ranking to be significantly different than where the computer model currently places them. JD puts Monterey in D 2. The computer model ranks Monterey as the 25th (out of 29) team in our area. In D4. Not quite as good as NMC but a bit better than Gonzales.
Now I hope that Monterey turns the corner and moves up in the computer model. But if they don't, how can you put a team that ranks in the middle of a C league into the upper B league?
If you want this to be an equity league you cannot let one person, or even a small committee, determine equity based on their "feel". The computer model would put 13 (of the 29) teams in a different division than JD posted here.
Alvarez and MVC should be in D2 - not D1
Seaside and SV should be in D1 - not D2
North Salinas should be in D3 and Monterey in D4 - not D2
King City and St Francis should be in D2 - not D3
PG and NMC should be in D4 - not D3
Soquel, Greenfield and Santa Cruz should be in D3 - not D4
Of course both the computer model and the subjective "feel" will change before the end of the season, but I sure hope a dialogue begins now as to how equity will be decided at the end of the year.
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