1. Carmel: Division V top seed posted fifth undefeated regular season in 10 years.
2. Palma: Gabilan Division co champions have won five straight games.
3. San Benito: A rematch with Salinas in the Open Division I playoffs.
4. Salinas: Begins defense of its Open Division I title, looking for redemption.
5. Aptos: Has failed to hold leads in the fourth quarter in its last two games.
3. San Benito: A rematch with Salinas in the Open Division I playoffs.
4. Salinas: Begins defense of its Open Division I title, looking for redemption.
5. Aptos: Has failed to hold leads in the fourth quarter in its last two games.
6. Monte Vista: One of the hotter teams riding into the Division V playoffs.
7. Christopher: Reigning Division IV champions are the No. 7 seed in Division II.
8. Monterey: The nine wins are more than the previous three years combined.
9. Gonzales: First Spartans program to go 10-0 in a regular season.
10. Alisal: Injuries crippled the Trojans down the stretch, losing three of their final four.
10. Alisal: Injuries crippled the Trojans down the stretch, losing three of their final four.
On the bubble: San Lorenzo Valley, North Salinas, Soledad, King City.
2 comments:
Let's see what the computer model says:
Palma (115)
Aptos (171)
Carmel (175)
Salinas (185) Aptos, Carmel and Salinas in a virtual tie
Hollister (285)
Monterey (341)
Christopher (422)
Alisal (429)
Gonzales (438)
MVC (439) Christopher, Alisal, Gonzales and MVC in a virtual tie
And on the bubble, SLV (513), North Salinas (549), Alvarez (594) followed by these four teams in the mid-600 range...Soledad (623), Scots Valley (636), King City (640) and NMC (649)
The only reason that Carmel is rated where they are is because of a Calpreps rule that until you lose, you must be rated higher than any team you've defeated, regardless of how the rest of the season goes. As such, they must stay higher than Salinas with their system. Carmel could have upset De La Salle in the first game before going on to win every Mission Division game by one point, yet they'd still be rated higher than the Spartans.
However, if you look at their "trend" model, the rest of Carmel's results suggest a "sharp downward" trend. Yet, because of how Salinas has performed, the Padre rating continues to rise. If the Padres fall in the playoffs (which could still be a big "if"), all bets are off.
Similarly, if you look at Wilcox, they should also have a "sharp downward" trend, but they continue to rise because of their win over Valley Christian.
In both cases, there's a flaw in the importance of a game that was played so long ago, when the rest of the results do not support the end product.
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