Numbers shrinking for schools promoted to the Gabilan in football

It's been documented over the last few years that numbers for high school football are dwindling throughout the nation. Concussions have struck fear into parents.

Yet, there's another scenario unfolding among coaches in the county that the dwindling numbers are also being caused when teams are forced into the Gabilan Division.

It is not a coincidence that when a program gets moved to the Gabilan Division, the numbers in that program shrink. Some have yet to recover.

It happened to North Salinas in 2016, Seaside in 2017, and Christopher and Gilroy last fall. Now it's Carmel's turn as the programs numbers are at an all-time low with 51 for two levels.

"There are four teams that consistency produce the same amount of numbers," Carmel coach Golden Anderson said. "The other four don't fall into that category. This is not a way to grow numbers."

Anderson was speaking of Aptos, Palma, San Benito and Salinas, all programs with numbers in the upper 50's for varsity football -- or more than Carmel has in its entire program.

"If those four schools were in our situation for a couple of years, all four would be singing a different song," Seaside coach Al Avila said. "It's not an equity league."

So sacrificial lambs are thrown into the Gabilan to create an eight-team league. That's not to suggest teams can't compete. Monte Vista proved that for two years.

Yet, it's not sustainable, as evident by Monte Vista having been moved down after going 2-5 in the Gabilan in 2017. Meanwhile the fab four have postseason runs of a decade or longer going strong.

While three teams have vacated the Gabilan Division in the last three years, Alvarez has stayed put, despite going 1-5, 1-6 and 2-5.

"We haven't had any type of run since being moved up," Alvarez coach Anthony Gonzales said. "We have been stuck in this league, even though we haven't been competitive."

Before being dropped into the Mission Division this season after a 1-9 campaign, Avila's numbers in the entire program went from 60 in 2017 to 51 last fall. This year his numbers are slightly up.

"When you're not winning, kids don't want to play," Avila said. "It's a bunch of crock when those that vote say you're competitive with the other three schools. We work all year long for -- fifth place?"

When players feel there's no shot at a title, it's demoralizing. Interest fades and numbers drop, as has been the case over the last five years for programs promoted to the Gabilan.

"It's OK to have those feelings," Salinas coach Steve Zenk said. "But to say them in public, for kids to believe you don't feel like you can win. Well, a lot of them check out and do other things.''

Winning is something Carmel has done for a decade, with eight titles in the last 10 years. Anderson picked up his 100th win in the teams non-league opener two weeks ago.

"Some schools are worried about winning," Anderson said. "I'm worried about surviving the season. We don't have the depth or the personnel to pull up players."

Anderson shut down his junior varsity program, instead opting for a frosh-soph team. But it will not play its first game until this week because players didn't have the mandated 10 practices.

"Carmel doesn't deserve to be up there," Avila said. "I feel for them. But welcome to our world. We expect to get thrown back in their next year. Equity does not work in football."

It certainly hasn't in the Gabilan Division. In the seven years that the league has existed, only Monte Vista and Monterey have cracked the top four -- both finishing second once.

Both teams quickly spiraled in the opposite direction, as their numbers dropped. Each team has since moved down to lower leagues, where both made the postseason last year.

"I think there's a large disparity in the Gabilan," Avila said. "There are not eight big schools that play high level football. You're putting teams that are not alike in the same division.''

Before last year's season finale with Seaside, Gonzales was asked if he was going to throw the game so Alvarez would potentially get bumped down to the Mission Division.

"I told people not a chance," Gonzales said. "Yes, I'm tired of being a punching bag for the Gabilan. But I am still competitive."

Alvarez won that game 26-23.

Zenk is not sold on the fact that a promotion to the Gabilan is the only reason numbers are dropping for programs.

"When I was at North Salinas in 2008, we shared the title with Gilroy and Palma," Zenk said. "The following year I had my lowest turnout in my tenure there. Why?"

Teams that have dropped down have proven to be more competitive, although their numbers are not necessary going up either.

"I don't know if it's a coincidence that our numbers are down," Anderson said. "Hard to say. I know there are students that have chosen not to play. I'm assuming it has a lot to do with it."

Parents had expressed concern when Carmel was told back in April that it was being thrown into the Gabilan Division. A dozen players that were in the program did not come out this fall.

"We are a seasonal program," Anderson said. "Most of the teams in this division are year around. It's a problem that's never been solved by any realignment."

Unless you are moved out of the Gabilan. An argument can be made that realignment is working in the Mission, Cypress and Santa Lucia Divisions.

One suggestion that has surfaced in the past is creating a Peninsula Division, which would include Carmel, Marina, Monterey, North County, Pacific Grove, Seaside and Stevenson.

From a geographic standout, as well as student enrollment, it makes sense. But it would require the large schools to approve, which is highly unlikely.

"Football is a different beast," Avila said. "It's about numbers. You need linemen. You can't survive with six or seven. It gets dangerous. We're losing enrollment. That's not going to change."

Quietly, it has been brought up about a league featuring Salinas, Palma, San Benito and Aptos with the likes of Milpitas, Los Gatos, Palo Alto and Wilcox from the Santa Clara Valley Athletic League.

The likeness is unlikely, given the financial cost it would require to send a bus or buses to San Jose every other week.

"They're having the same conversations in San Jose about equity," Zenk said. "We have to figure this out. Because if we don't do something, football is going to die. And other sports will follow, because football pays the bills."