Baseball realignment

I see Monterey and Christopher as locks to move into the MBL's Gabilan Division next year. Monte Vista should also join them.
 Now you've got a competitive league that will include Palma, San Benito and Salinas.
 But of the four teams that are struggling in the TCAL, which one remains in the upper division?
 I'd say Alvarez is a lock to move into the MBL's Pacific Division to join Pajaro Valley, Seaside, North County and Watsonville.
 After a promising start, North Salinas has dropped 10 straight while Gilroy is having its worst season in over a decade.
 The past suggests Gilroy will bounce back.
 Will the improvement of Alisal this spring keep them from dropping to the Pacific Division?